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Published forecast
Current UFC event
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This week’s card
Current UFC event
Red corner
AVS
Blue corner
B
Win outlook
Share of simulated wins with 95% confidence range
Paths to victory
Unconditional probability of each fighter winning by method
Round outlook
Where simulated finishes occur, followed by the decision share
Statistical matchup
Model inputs and interpretable fighter tendencies
Simulation margin
Performance-score separation across every simulated fight
Model context
Important limitations for this matchup
